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Daily Market Update September 30, 2022

Early Morning Update

The Nov ‘22 natural gas contract is trading down $0.02 at $6.85.  The Nov ‘22 crude oil contract is down $0.45 at $80.54.

Summary

Another bumpy day for the front of the curve as the prompt month traded in a $0.54 range before ultimately settling down $0.081 to close the day at $6.874.  The EIA reported a build into storage of 103 Bcf, right in-line with expectations.  This was the second 100+ bcf injection in as many weeks and points to a healthier end/summer storage picture.  With ~6 weeks left in injection season, it seems likely that storage will go into winter with roughly 3.5 Tcf, a reasonable amount of storage.  Estimates for the end of winter are a different story though.  The range of estimates is wide at 900 Bcf at the low end and 1,675 Bcf at the high end.  An outcome where we exit winter with just 900 Bcf would be a bad outcome for the market and would mean we’ve had a cold winter with little/no increase in production, and it would be hard to rebuild storage levels quickly enough in the following injection season.  In the mean time, the supply/demand balance looks to be a little looser over the next few weeks as temps look mild and production grinds higher.  The longer into heating season we go with mild temps, the better we’ll be in terms of storage.

 

Market Update 09 30 2022

Market Settles 09 29 2022

 

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