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Daily Market Update October 05, 2022

Early Morning Update

The Nov ‘22 natural gas contract is trading up $0.14 at $6.98.  The Nov ‘22 crude oil contract is up $0.88 at $87.40.

Summary

September brought some much needed relief in the market, and October started off the month continuing the bearish sentiment due to demand destruction from Hurricane Ian, production breeching record levels, and mild temperatures for the majority of the eastern half of the country. The NYMEX prompt month saw a large trading range, between $6.310 and $6.886, before ultimately settling up 36.7 cents on the day to settle at $6.837/MMBtu. Over the next two weeks, the moderating temperatures appear to linger, but as normal temperatures for this time of year start to dip, that can quickly turn bullish from early heating demand. Focus has flipped to winter, with preliminary winter weather forecasts beginning to trickle in showing La Nina present once again and the potential for above-average precipitation in the Midcon region. LNG exports are starting to take a dip as maintenance season kicks off, down to about 10.5 Bcf/d over the past three days and down just over 1.0 Bcf/d week-over-week. U.S. dry production has dipped slightly from the all-time high set last week, hovering around 96.8 Bcf/d today. Tomorrow, the EIA is expected to report the largest injection of the season, with an estimated storage build of 114 Bcf, much higher than the 5-year average of 87 Bcf. This would be the third week in a row over 100 Bcf and continues to help lower the deficit to the 5-year average benchmark as we head toward withdrawal season.

 

Market Update 10 05 2022

Market Settles 10 04 2022

 

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