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Daily Market Update March 24, 2022

Early Morning Update

The Apr ‘22 natural gas contract is trading flat to yesterday’s close at $5.23. The May ‘22 crude oil contract is down $0.13 at $114.80.

Summary

Yesterday’s short-term gas trading session was marked with uncertainty as intraday prices alternated between day-over-day gains and losses. The prompt month see-sawed throughout the day, finally closing $0.045 higher day-over-day at $5.232/MMBtu.Most contracts within the 12-month strip, which settled up $0.050 to $5.359/MMBtu, followed this same pattern.Forward months beyond March 2023 posted modest gains, as well, anywhere between $0.010 and $0.040.Below-normal temperature forecasts for the next week in the East and Midwest continue to be the most obvious driver behind the rising short-term gas prices.The next cold front is set to force lows down into the 20s and 30s in the major load centers across the region.Thus, any modest production gains that have been made over the last week are expected to be offset by the upcoming heating demand and record LNG exports.The significantly colder forecast revisions will likely change the storage expectations for the next few reports.Following last week’s large 79 Bcf withdrawal, today’s EIA inventory report for week ended Mar. 18 was once anticipated to be the last withdrawal of the season.With the colder weather coming up, withdrawal season may now be extended, further adding to the current storage deficit. Polls for today’s withdrawal range from mid-30s to around 70 Bcf, with a median near 60 Bcf.This withdrawal level compares favorably to the 62 Bcf 5-year average withdrawal, but much higher than last year’s 29 Bcf pull.Current stockpiles sit at 1,440 Bcf, about 17% below the 5-year average.

 

Market Update 03 24 2022

Market Settles 03 23 2022

 

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