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Daily Market Update February 28, 2022

Early Morning Update

The Apr ‘22 natural gas contract is trading up $0.01 at $4.48.  The Apr ‘22 crude oil contract is up $4.11 at $95.70.

Summary

Today wraps up February and what a month it’s been!In the early days of the month, the market was hit by reports of inflation hitting 40-year highs, and then quickly moved to the ERCOT grid passing the first cold weather test since Uri. The middle of the month saw the largest conflict on the European continent since WWII with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, then finally got some hopeful news towards the end of the month with the pandemic looking to be moving into an endemic phase. With all the news to digest, NYMEX prices were volatile no matter where you looked.The Mar ‘22 prompt month traded prices ranged from $5.50/MMBtu on 2/2/22 to $3.941 on 2/11/22, but ultimately settled at $4.568.Q3 ‘22 and Q1 ‘23 followed a similar trendline, but, overall, were up for the month a few cents to settle at $4.75 and $4.83, respectively.Considering these strips were trading below $2.75 less than a year ago shows the strength of the bull market that we’ve seen.Longer term NYMEX calendar strips were also up during the month, with the cheapest being Cal ‘26 at $3.22, but again following the trend, up 13 cents since 2/1. On the power side, there were some volatile moments in the index market, notably in NEPOOL, where some daily on-peak averages topped $100/MWh ten times, but this was less than the previous month, where $100/MWh averages were topped 18 times.Despite the overall cold weather in TX for the month, only last week was any real time index volatility seen. Fingers crossed that the old adage for March rings true, that it does leave like a lamb, unlike February.

 

Market Update 02 28 2022

Market Settles 02 25 2022

 

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