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Daily Market Update September 23, 2021

Early Morning Update

he Oct ‘21 natural gas contract is trading up $0.05 at $4.86.  The Nov ‘21 crude oil contract is down $0.13 at $72.10.

Summary

fter several bouts of short-term volatility, participants in the natural gas market welcomed a relatively quiet trading session on Wednesday. Prices for both the 12- and 24-month strips advanced just shy of $0.02, closing at $4.258/MMBtu and $3.838/MMBtu, respectively.The slight day-over-day gains put an end to the market's four-day losing streak, during which the prompt and winter contracts weakened nearly $0.60.Surprisingly, the prompt month closed uncharacteristically flat at $4.805/MMBtu.It seems the current bullish and bearish fundamentals driving the October pendulum cancelled each other out, as recovering LNG exports were perfectly counterbalanced by cooler weather in the two-week forecast.However, the recent pricing stall may suggest a collective breath-holding as market participants await signals for a potentially bullish winter and fierce price rally.Following a hotter-than-expected summer, soaring LNG demand, and strained production, a severe winter would further weaken the already-bruised storage level. Inventories are currently sitting slightly above 3.0 Tcf, lagging roughly 16% and 7% behind both last year and the five-year average. Stakeholders are hopeful that stockpiles will rebuild throughout the fall, strengthening the market's trajectory towards the critical 3.5 Tcf pre-winter storage level. Today's EIA storage report for week ended September 17th is expected to announce an injection comparable to historical metrics, somewhere around 70 Bcf.

 

Market Update 09 23 2021

Market Settles 09 22 2021

 

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