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Daily Market Update October 21, 2021

Early Morning Update

he Nov ‘21 natural gas contract is trading down $0.11 at $5.06.  The Nov ‘21 crude oil contract is down $0.42 at $83.00.

Summary

espite some promising bearish signals, market participants bet the over during yesterday’s short-term gas rally. The 12-month strip forged ahead for the second day in a row, gaining $0.034/MMBtu day-over-day as concerns over the rapidly-depleting drilled but uncompleted (DUC) inventory and tight supplies overseas outweighed both the projected warmth and the 0.26 Bcf/d November supply increase forecasted in the latest EIA Drilling Productivity Report. Most of the strength within the 12-month term was heavily weighted towards the front of the curve, as the prompt month settled $0.082 higher to $5.170/MMBtu.The December contract performed similarly, gaining $0.097 to $5.447/MMBtu.The Q1 ’22 strip is still the most expensive on the board and closed at $5.400/MMBtu, holding a nearly $1.250/MMBtu premium over the next highest term, Q1 ’23.While current winter prices are still about 15% below the early October highs, the market’s next move is likely dependent upon today’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report.According to NaturalGasIntel, a 90 Bcf build for the week ended October 15th is the most common expectation amongst polled analysts. A build at this level would be much higher than both last year’s 49 Bcf and the 69 Bcf five-year average 69 injection.

 

Market Update 10 21 2021

Market Settles 10 20 2021

 

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