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Daily Market Update November 18, 2021

Early Morning Update

he Dec ‘21 natural gas contract is trading up $0.14 at $4.95.  The Dec ‘21 crude oil contract is up $0.14 at $78.50.

Summary

hort-term natural gas prices plunged on Wednesday as participants were likely undeceived by potentially overstated bullish fundamentals. While gas demand will undoubtedly remain quite elevated over the next few weeks, midday weather model runs showing slightly warmer revisions to below-normal forecasts seemed to limit the potential for demand outperformance. A constrained upside and an unlikely mid-November injection appear to be all the market needed to sell-off nearly $0.40 of gains from the prior two days.After climbing $0.16 on Tuesday to $5.177/MMBtu, the December contract closed out Wednesday’s session $0.36 lower to $4.816/MMBtu.The January through March contracts performed similarly to the prompt month, but movement throughout the rest of the forward curve seemed comparatively muted and stable.The balance of 2022 slipped by only $0.06 to $4.021/MMBtu, and contracts within 2023 and 2024 shifted lower by about a penny. After quietly creeping up over the last few weeks, it’s also worth noting that the longer term strips in 2025 and beyond weakened around $0.05, as well. Expectations for today’s EIA storage report reflecting the week ended November 12th are leaning towards a build in the mid-20 Bcf range.The 5-year average for this week is a 12 Bcf withdrawal.

 

Market Update 11 18 2021

Market Settles 11 17 2021

 

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