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Daily Market Update November 17, 2021

Early Morning Update

he Dec ‘21 natural gas contract is trading down $0.20 at $4.98.  The Dec ‘21 crude oil contract is down $0.66 at $80.10.

Summary

blanket of cooler-than-normal temperatures is expected to linger over the eastern half of the country starting late this week into the first few days of December. It looks to be a chilly week for Thanksgiving, with expectations of elevated demand for natural gas. As we have seen over the past six months, near-term pricing has been highly weather-sensitive. Yesterday, the NYMEX natural gas futures price for December rose 16 cents on the day to settle at $5.177/MMBtu. The winter pricing average seems to be hovering around the $5 level, which is much lower than where November settled at $6.202/MMBtu. With the cold moving in at the end of the month, it will be interesting to see how much of an impact it will have on the prompt month settle. Direct Energy’s final winter weather outlook should be released this upcoming Friday, which may confirm whether the La Nina pattern still shows best risk for cold in the Northeast for early December. U.S. dry production has been recovering over the past few weeks, averaging right around 94.0 Bcf/d, and has helped to alleviate the storage deficit to the 5-year average.The estimate for the EIA storage injection report tomorrow is 22 Bcf, which is expected to be the last injection of the season. Global pricing for LNG recently saw an uptick as Russian gas flows have been stalled into Europe and a cold front moved in early for Northern China. LNG exports are expected to continue to grow over the next year, with two additional trains coming online, one this month, and is currently averaging around 11.0 Bcf/d.

 

Market Update 11 17 2021

Market Settles 11 16 2021

 

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