Daily Market Update February 8, 2021
Early Morning Update
The Mar21 natural gas contract is trading up $0.07 at $2.93. The Mar21 crude oil contract is up $0.75 at $57.60.
Summary
To summarize last week’s natural gas price activity, the March 2021 prompt month contract started the week off with a bang. On Monday, the prompt month contract rallied $0.286 cents, opening at $2.564/MMBtu and closing at $2.850/MMBtu. The rest of the week yielded mixed outcomes, but, ultimately, the prompt month closed the week on Friday at $2.863/MMBtu, a gain of nearly 30 cents from the previous week. The calendar strips yielded mixed results for the week. Cal ‘22 gained six cents, while 2023 and 2024 lost two and three cents, respectively. Residential/Commercial heating demand has been off to a strong start for February, as below-average temperatures have taken hold. That trend is anticipated to grow even stronger this week. Total demand is forecasted to exceed the previous record from January 2019 and break 146 Bcf/day by mid-week. The frigid temperatures are likely to bolster cash prices at regional basis hubs, which are likely to carry over into higher index prices for power as well. But will that carry over into the forwards? Analysts are eyeing gains in production, particularly in Texas, to hopefully mute the longer-term concerns of short-term weather.
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