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Daily Market Update December 20, 2021

Early Morning Update

he Jan ‘22 natural gas contract is trading up $0.15 at $3.84.  The Jan ‘22 crude oil contract is down $3.06 at $67.80.

Summary

he week begins not much weekend breaking news and the general weather consensus remaining the same since last week, with polar air currently locked in western Canada, and with TX and the plains states looking above normal for the next week. For those wishing for a white Christmas, the odds in many parts of the U.S. are not looking good according to NOAA.Switching gears to power pricing for the upcoming winter, prices are a mixed bag.In NEPOOL, NEMA ATC Q1-22 prices have jumped over the past two weeks to nearly $180/MWh, while in other eastern markets, pricing has risen to $100 in NY Zone J, but fallen in PPL to under $60/MWh.ERCOT is an outlier, with Q1-22 pricing hovering just north of $40/MWh, a 6-month low. Despite the steep sell-off in NYMEX for Q1-22 (its remarkably down 42% since hitting its high water mark of $6.30 on 10/6), power prices are still holding onto premiums, with fresh memories of Uri in February earlier this year.On the more immediate side, index prices in most regions are down, as NYMEX has fallen compared to last month and, in some cases, significantly. ERCOT ATC real-time MTD settles have been around $28/MWh (down $13/MWh compared to November), PPL is down $18/MWh to a December MTD average of $36/MWh, but NEPOOL has remained stubborn, with DA settles only down $1 month-over-month to $57/MWh for Dec ATC average.

 

Market Update 12 20 2021

Market Settles 12 17 2021

 

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