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Daily Market Update April 9, 2020

Early Morning Update

The May20 natural gas contract is trading down $0.02 at $1.76.  The May20 crude oil contract is up $0.81 at $25.90.



Amidst these uncertain times, the May natural gas contract has been subjected to significant volatility over the past two weeks. After sliding 14 cents from $1.69 down to $1.55 between March 30th and April 2nd, the prompt month weakness quickly reversed. Prices then gained 30 cents the next week, before settling at $1.85 on April 7th. Most of this movement was attributed to warmer weather during the bearish first week, and potential production shut-ins were bullish throughout the second. Once again, however, the market trend has reversed itself as of yesterday. The May contract lost seven cents throughout the trading activity on April 8th and settled at $1.783. This newly developed weakness can be most likely attributed to the wide and bearish range of today’s expected injection report, which will be the first injection of the year. Estimates for today’s report have fallen between +15 and +33 Bcf. Any number within this range would be much higher than the 6 Bcf five-year average, while an injection of 33 Bcf would outpace last year’s 25 Bcf. It’s likely this volatility in the short-term gas market will continue, as cooler weather and production declines are forecasted to move in over the next two weeks.     

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