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Daily Market Update October 4, 2019

Early Morning Update

The Nov19 natural gas contract is trading down $0.04 at $2.28.  The Nov19 crude oil contract is up $0.82 at $53.27.   

Summary

A larger-than-expected build into storage and the end of above-average temps in the northeast brought….. higher prices.  The prompt month rallied despite the news and closed the day up $.082 to end the day at $2.329.  Basis and power markets in the northeast rallied yesterday as well reflecting ongoing concerns regarding maintenance along the Tetco M3 pipeline.  
The storage report showing a build of 112 Bcf brought total inventory levels to 3,317 bcf, just 18 Bcf below the 5-year average.  It’s worth pointing out that the deficit was 565 Bcf in early March.  We’ve eliminated most of the deficit this summer despite very high demand and record exports, reflecting strong domestic production growth.  Looking ahead, estimates for the next three builds are +96, +94, +88—all larger than the 5-year average and if actualized, would leave us with a 17 bcf surplus to the 5-year average.  End-of-season estimates currently sit at roughly 3.8 Tcf.

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Market Settles 100319

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