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Daily Market Update October 2, 2019

Early Morning Update

The Nov19 natural gas contract is trading up $0.01 at $2.29.  The Nov19 crude oil contract is up $0.03 at $53.65.

  

Summary

The NYMEX prompt month contract continued to slide yesterday, settling 4.7 cents lower than Monday’s close at $2.283/MMBtu. The Nov19 contract has traded lower in the last ten consecutive trading sessions, giving back a total of 44 cents since September 16. Calendar strips 2023-2025 also traded lower yesterday, and 2025 hit a new all-time low at $2.687/MMBtu. Conversely, the 12-month strip and calendar strips 2020-2022 traded ~1 cent higher yesterday and are priced between $2.41-$2.51. Despite October technically being a “shoulder month” with lower demand, the hourly PJM West Hub real-time electric price hit $746.59/MWh between 2pm and 3pm EDT, the most expensive hourly settlement so far this year. Extreme pricing lasted from 2pm to 6pm due to heat and humidity in the region, which caused load to actualize ~8% above the PJM day-ahead forecast. Demand is expected to wane over the next few weeks with temperatures moderating. In regulatory news, on Monday, President Trump nominated James Danly, to fill one of the two open seats on the FERC. If confirmed, he could help to secure a quorum on FERC proceedings from which  another commissioner was recused, which includes the delayed PJM capacity proceeding.  

 Market Update100219

Market Settles 100119

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