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Daily Market Update March 28, 2019

Early Morning Update

The May19 natural gas contract is trading up $0.01 at $2.73. The May19 crude oil contract is down $1.06 at $58.35.



With U.S. dry production at record levels and demand for natural gas declining due to mild temperatures, the April NYMEX contract rolled off the books yesterday, but not before losing 2.7 cents and ultimately settling at $2.713/MMBtu. May takes the front position today, and that contract, too, was down three cents, settling at $2.719. In fact, the entire 12-mo strip lost almost three cents, while calendar strips through 2025 each lost about a penny, on average. So far this week, production has been hovering just under the 87.9 Bcf/d all-time high set last Saturday, while total U.S. demand continues to decline, down 4.7 Bcf/d today to 84.5 Bcf/d. Meanwhile, the market is anticipating what looks to be the last storage withdrawal of the season to be reported this morning by the U.S. EIA. Storage inventories were expected to have dropped 33 Bcf in the week to March 22, which would put end-of-season gas stockpiles at 1,110 Bcf, a 17% deficit to last year, and a 31% deficit to the five-year average. As strong production and declining demand continue as we move into the shoulder season, the deficit to last year is expected to be erased sometime in May.


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