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Daily Market Update January 8, 2019

Early Morning Update

The Feb19 natural gas contract is trading up $0.05 at $2.99. The Feb19 crude contract is up $0.78 at $49.30.

 

Summary

More downward movement in the near-term has followed mild weather and steadying production, with much of the same on the horizon. The February prompt month dropped below $3, a 10 cent move downward to $2.944. The 12-month strip is essentially flat at $2.802, 2020 is up 1.7 cents to $2.664, and 2021 is up less than a penny at $2.622. After a few weeks of decreasing production over the holidays, supply is finally beginning to recover, with averages estimated to be in the mid-to-upper 84 Bcf/d range. The mild weather is doing its part as well, with warmer-than-normal temperatures dictating the majority of the 27% decrease in year-over-year demand. While we saw record high LNG sendout over the weekend of 5.5 Bcf/d, the warmer weather more than makes up for this increase. The deficit is hopefully looking to shrink over the next few weeks of calm weather and strong year-over-year supply, as withdrawals from storage this year are only about one quarter of the very robust levels seen during the frigid temperatures in 2018.

 

Market Update 010819

Market Settles 010719

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