Daily Market Update January 18, 2019

Early Morning Update

The Feb19 natural gas contract is trading down $0.19 at $3.23. The Feb19 crude oil contract is up $0.58 at $52.65.

Summary

Market volatility continues as weather forecasts seem to be revised multiple times a day.  The prompt contract traded all the way up to $3.593 yesterday and as low as $3.367 before finally settling at a rather benign $3.413, up $.029 on the day.  The market had been trading higher all morning, even after the storage report of 81 Bcf, but fell in the afternoon as weather forecasts were again revised to show less frigid temperatures. The draw of 81 Bcf leaves us only 77 Bcf behind last year (3%).  The storage draws are forecast to pick up though with the expected colder weather.  With the larger draws, the latest end/winter storage estimates are calling for slightly less than 1,300 Bcf.  This is down from nearly 1,500 only 2 weeks ago — a huge change entirely related to the change in weather forecasts. 

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