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Daily Market Update September 26, 2018

Early Morning Update

The Oct18 natural gas contract is flat at $3.08.  The Nov18 crude contract is down $0.45 at $71.83.

 

Summary

The October 2018 prompt month contract continued to rally yesterday, marking four consecutive trading days of gains and settling at $3.082/MMBtu, 4.4 cents over Monday’s settlement price. Today is the last day to trade October 2018 natural gas. The November-February contracts also traded higher yesterday, all priced above $3.00. Northeast production is expected to dip, likely a result of pipeline maintenance, however, remains robust, averaging 83.3 Bcf/d so far for the month of September, and setting another record of 84.4 Bcf/d yesterday. After shutting down for Hurricane Florence, Duke Energy’s Brunswick nuclear units came back online over the weekend and are now operating close to capacity, this should help to alleviate some of the strong NG demand in the southeast; however we are also entering generation maintenance season, and other nuclear units are beginning to shut for scheduled refueling, bullish for natural gas. The current rally in near-term NG prices comes despite The National Weather Service’s December-February outlook published on September 20, predicting a warmer-than-normal winter; it appears as though the market is awaiting more confident winter outlooks before committing to any downside.

 

Market Update 092618

Market Settles 092518

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