Daily Market Update November 15, 2018
Early Morning Update
The Dec18 natural gas contract is trading down $0.25 at $4.59. The Dec18 crude contract is up $0.35 at $56.60.
Summary
December 2018 NYMEX natural gas contract gained another 73.6 cents yesterday to settle at $4.837/MMBtu. November's burst of cold weather came as a bit of a shock to the market, especially after a projected mild or slightly warmer winter. U.S. demand increased 1.6 Bcf/d on the day to 111 Bcf/d for Wednesday’s gas day, after Tuesday’s initial estimate was revised up by 800 MMcf/d. Regionally, the Northeast and the Southeast had the biggest increases, with total demand jumping 3.9 Bcf/d and 800 MMcf/ d, respectively. Total U.S. supply is down by 400 MMcf/d from Tuesday, as a 600-MMcf/d decrease in evening cycle production estimates was partially offset by rising imports from Canada targeting the U.S. Northeast. Despite increases in solar generation and flat-to-declining levels of overall generation, coal-fired generation has seen sizable year-over-year gains in the back half of the year (as high as 33% year-over-year in September). Gas-fired generation, which exhibited some growth in the beginning of the year, has tapered off.
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