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Daily Market Update December 17, 2018

Early Morning Update

The Jan19 natural gas contract is trading down $0.16 at $3.67. The Jan19 crude contract is up $0.10 at $51.30.

 

Summary

On Friday, the January 2018 NYMEX natural gas futures price took a dive, falling 29.7 cents on the day to settle at $3.827/MMBtu, the lowest January has traded since early November. Both February and March 2019 contracts followed suit, down 27.4 and 25.0 cents, respectively, after a bearish storage report of 77 Bcf. After reaching a new record for this winter on Monday over 106 Bcf/d, overall U.S. demand for natural gas has also taken a tumble, down to just over 96 Bcf/d. Warming weather outlooks continue to dominate the forecasts, mainly in the Northeast, a major demand center for natural gas, into the beginning of next month. The early start to winter was one of the main drivers for the upward movement of Q1-19, and it appears that if warmer-than-normal temperatures continue into January, we could see prices fall. However, if the forecasts should change to the colder side, we have seen what the upside risks might be in reaction. Total U.S. dry production has also fallen from its record highs to just over 84 Bcf/d, which is still about 8.0 Bcf higher than in 2017.

 

Market Update 121718

Market Settles 121418

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