Summary

The natural gas prompt month had its biggest decline in almost two months yesterday, as traders, looking ahead at a weather warm-up, considered the rally on Friday to be overblown.  The Jun17 natural gas contract lost 9.4 cents in this week’s opening session, settling at $3.172/MMBtu, and more than erasing the gains made at the end of last week.  Weather forecasts for the next two weeks show below-normal temperatures confined to the western half of the country, while  above-normal temperatures spread from the middle of the U.S. to cover the entire eastern half.  Dry natural gas production has been steadily growing, as well, increasing 1.3 Bcf/d over the past week.  So far this spring, we’ve seen production lagging, resulting in a tightening of the supply/demand balance.  Managed money has been increasing their bets to record levels on higher prices, but we could see a sharp downturn if production continues to improve and demand is restrained.  The biggest question remains: how hot will it get this summer?

Market Update 050917

Market Settles 050817