Weekly Energy Market Update May 19th, 2014
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Below is the Direct Energy Business Weekly Energy Market Update video for May 19th, 2014. We embedded this video right into the blog post, so you don’t have to leave this page to view it. The written summary is still below too.
The following is a summary of last week’s market activity and the market outlook.
- Forwards are below $5.00 all the way to 2020.
- Current inventory = 1160 Bcf, which is 41% below last year and 45% below the 5 year average.
- The storage report was misleading due to adjustment to prior data. 105 was actually a 97 for last week + adj of 8.
- Natural gas declines continued - to mild weather and record production
- Inventory target to prepare for winter is ~ 3,500 Bcf, which requires injections to exceed 5YA by 3.5 Bcf/D
Near Term: Market continues to focus on storage levels and recent weakness is due to weather and production. Injections need to significantly exceed historical levels in order to get to a comfortable state and that is not occurring consistently. Continue to watch for summer weather forecasts as they will be a main driver. There is little time before summer so put in place hedges that are commensurate to customer risk appetite. Otherwise it’s just rolling the dice.
Long Term: Discounts versus near-term remain in place with curve backwardated through Calendar 2016. Take advantage of any dips, when possible, but don’t be greedy.
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